Thursday, January 21, 2010

Ghosts of Tech Trends Past and Future

In the most recent issue of his Cites & Insights, Walt Crawford sums up and comments on the Tech Trends, Trends and Forecasts provided by a variety of library and non-library people.

Crawford's take on tech predictions is always fun because he is one of the few writers who evaluates how accurate past predictions have been and writes with a dry sense of humour:

"It’s as predictable as the Winter Solstice: the ongoing trickle of articles on trends turns into a flood around the turn of each year, coupled with a healthy rush of forecasts—and a much smaller freshet of ‘fessing up, as forecasters let us know how things worked out (...) "

"Let’s look at a few of the many trend statements for 2010. We’ll also look at the flipside of trendiness: Deathspotting—assertions that X or Y is (or is about to be) obsolete or defunct. I was originally planning to include some of the 'top 10 for 2009' stories, but enough is enough—and, especially at the end of a decade, there are too many of the things to even think about (...)

First, let’s look back at some of last year’s trends, forecasts and predictions..."

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posted by Michel-Adrien at 12:41 pm


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